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Comparing Decision Making Methods

A graph type rarely seen at BBNA, provides valuable insights

A ROC Plot helps to evaluate the effectiveness of different decision making methods by plotting each method’s correct and incorrect results:

  • True Positive Rate (vertical axis): correct decisions
  • False Positive Rate (horizontal axis): false alarms

Effective methods will cluster along the top and left edge of the graph. The top-left corner corresponds to a perfect score. The 45-degree line is highlighted because this is where the number of true positives equals the number of false positives, in other words a method that plots here is no better than flipping a coin. Those that plot below the 45-degree line are not worth the trouble, they are less effective than simply flipping a coin.

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